LAD
57%
@
April 22, 2026
SFG
43%
RL
SFG +1.5 (+109) — 55% win, +7.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAD
Shohei Ohtani
vs
SFG
Tyler Mahle
Win Probability
| Source | LAD | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| Simulation only | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| Elo ratings | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| Market (implied) | 65.4% | 34.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAD avg runs
5.4
SFG avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAD wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 3.9% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| SFG | 5.5% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Will Smith
- Freddie Freeman
- Teoscar Hernández
- Max Muncy
- Andy Pages
- Hyeseong Kim
- Alex Freeland
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Casey Schmitt
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Drew Gilbert
- Patrick Bailey
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
LAD: 1582
SFG: 1491
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAD | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -210 | +176 |
| Bovada | -220 | +180 |
| BetMGM | -200 | +165 |
| DraftKings | -226 | +184 |
| Caesars | -220 | +180 |
Model Analysis
SFG is getting +1.5 at +109. The sim gives them a 55% chance of covering — 7.7% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.