MIN
56%
@
April 22, 2026
NYM
44%
ML
MIN ML (+135) — 56% win, +9.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Connor Prielipp
vs
NYM
Clay Holmes
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| Simulation only | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Elo ratings | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| Market (implied) | 41.0% | 59.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
4.6
NYM avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 5.5% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| NYM | 5.1% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Trevor Larnach
- Josh Bell
- Ryan Jeffers
- Matt Wallner
- Luke Keaschall
- Victor Caratini
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Mark Vientos
- Francisco Alvarez
- Tommy Pham
- Marcus Semien
- Tyrone Taylor
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
53°F
Wind: 5 mph cross
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1484
NYM: 1343
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +134 | -158 |
| Bovada | +133 | -159 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
The market has MIN as a +135 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Connor Prielipp keeps MIN competitive on the mound against Clay Holmes. MIN holds a commanding 141-point Elo edge.