PHI
34%
@
April 22, 2026
CHC
66%
Pitching Matchup
PHI
Taijuan Walker
vs
CHC
Matthew Boyd
Win Probability
| Source | PHI | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Simulation only | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| Elo ratings | 23.8% | 76.2% |
| Market (implied) | 39.2% | 60.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PHI avg runs
4.5
CHC avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PHI wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 6.2% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| CHC | 5.4% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Felix Reyes
- Adolis García
- J.T. Realmuto
- Alec Bohm
- Brandon Marsh
- Edmundo Sosa
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Miguel Amaya
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Dansby Swanson
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.89
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
49°F
Wind: 7 mph out
Elo Ratings
PHI: 1398
CHC: 1577
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PHI | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +146 | -174 |
| Bovada | +143 | -174 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +144 | -175 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |