TOR
54%
@
April 22, 2026
LAA
46%
ML
TOR ML (+135) — 54% win, +8.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
TOR
Eric Lauer
vs
LAA
Jose Soriano
Win Probability
| Source | TOR | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Simulation only | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Elo ratings | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Market (implied) | 41.2% | 58.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TOR avg runs
4.6
LAA avg runs
4.1
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TOR wins, Positive = LAA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 5.1% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| LAA | 7.0% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TOR
- Nathan Lukes
- Ernie Clement
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Eloy Jiménez
- Daulton Varsho
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Andrés Giménez
- Tyler Heineman
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Jo Adell
- Jorge Soler
- Oswald Peraza
- Nolan Schanuel
- Vaughn Grissom
- Travis d'Arnaud
- Bryce Teodosio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
69°F
Wind: 11 mph in
Elo Ratings
TOR: 1523
LAA: 1453
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TOR | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +134 | -158 |
| Bovada | +129 | -154 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
The market has TOR as a +135 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Eric Lauer keeps TOR competitive on the mound against Jose Soriano. TOR holds a commanding 70-point Elo edge.