ATL
56%
@
April 22, 2026
WSN
44%
Pitching Matchup
ATL
Martín Pérez
vs
WSN
Zack Littell
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| Simulation only | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Elo ratings | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| Market (implied) | 56.4% | 43.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
5.2
WSN avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 4.1% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| WSN | 5.8% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Ozzie Albies
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Dominic Smith
- Mauricio Dubón
- Michael Harris II
WSN
- James Wood
- Curtis Mead
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Joey Wiemer
- Luis García Jr.
- Nasim Nuñez
- Keibert Ruiz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1610
WSN: 1522
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -142 | +120 |
| Bovada | -144 | +121 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -143 | +119 |
| Caesars | -145 | +122 |