BAL
51%
@
April 22, 2026
KCR
49%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Chris Bassitt
vs
KCR
Michael Wacha
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Simulation only | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Elo ratings | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| Market (implied) | 45.1% | 54.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.9
KCR avg runs
5.0
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = KCR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 5.1% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| KCR | 4.0% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Gunnar Henderson
- Taylor Ward
- Adley Rutschman
- Pete Alonso
- Samuel Basallo
- Jeremiah Jackson
- Colton Cowser
- Leody Taveras
- Coby Mayo
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Michael Massey
- Jac Caglianone
- Isaac Collins
- Kyle Isbel
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.1
K: 0.93
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1462
KCR: 1381
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +110 | -132 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |