NYY
54%
@
April 22, 2026
BOS
46%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Max Fried
vs
BOS
Ranger Suarez
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| Simulation only | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Elo ratings | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| Market (implied) | 56.6% | 43.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
5.0
BOS avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 5.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| BOS | 5.3% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Amed Rosario
- Aaron Judge
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Cody Bellinger
- Randal Grichuk
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- José Caballero
- Austin Wells
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Andruw Monasterio
- Willson Contreras
- Trevor Story
- Wilyer Abreu
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Caleb Durbin
- Connor Wong
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.81
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
44°F
Wind: 5 mph cross
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1567
BOS: 1496
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -146 | +124 |
| Bovada | -142 | +119 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -143 | +119 |
| Caesars | -145 | +122 |