PIT
45%
@
April 22, 2026
TEX
55%
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Braxton Ashcraft
vs
TEX
Jack Leiter
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Simulation only | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Elo ratings | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Market (implied) | 50.3% | 49.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
5.2
TEX avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = TEX wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 4.5% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| TEX | 4.6% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Joey Bart
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Jung
- Evan Carter
- Kyle Higashioka
- Josh Smith
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1487
TEX: 1529
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -111 | -109 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |