STL
50%
@
April 22, 2026
MIA
50%
Pitching Matchup
STL
Kyle Leahy
vs
MIA
Janson Junk
Win Probability
| Source | STL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Simulation only | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| Elo ratings | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Market (implied) | 45.7% | 54.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.3
MIA avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 7.2% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| MIA | 5.1% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Masyn Winn
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Kyle Stowers
- Otto Lopez
- Xavier Edwards
- Liam Hicks
- Agustín Ramírez
- Owen Caissie
- Graham Pauley
- Connor Norby
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
STL: 1573
MIA: 1485
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +109 | -131 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |