LAD
53%
@
April 23, 2026
SFG
47%
Pitching Matchup
LAD
Tyler Glasnow
vs
SFG
Logan Webb
Win Probability
| Source | LAD | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| Simulation only | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Elo ratings | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Market (implied) | 58.8% | 41.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAD avg runs
5.2
SFG avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAD wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 4.4% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| SFG | 5.3% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Freddie Freeman
- Teoscar Hernández
- Max Muncy
- Andy Pages
- Dalton Rushing
- Hyeseong Kim
- Alex Freeland
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Casey Schmitt
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Drew Gilbert
- Patrick Bailey
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
LAD: 1559
SFG: 1514
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAD | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -154 | +130 |
| Bovada | -157 | +131 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +135 |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 |