Pitching Matchup
Win Probability
| Source | MIL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Simulation only | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Elo ratings | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| Market (implied) | 33.4% | 66.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIL wins, Positive = DET wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 5.3% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| DET | 4.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIL
- Brandon Lockridge
- Brice Turang
- William Contreras
- Gary Sánchez
- Luis Rengifo
- Luis Matos
- Greg Jones
- Blake Perkins
- Joey Ortiz
DET
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Colt Keith
- Riley Greene
- Dillon Dingler
- Kerry Carpenter
- Spencer Torkelson
- Wenceel Pérez
- Javier Báez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Weather
Elo Ratings
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +190 | -230 |
| Bovada | +190 | -230 |
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 |
| DraftKings | +194 | -240 |
| Caesars | +192 | -235 |
Model Analysis
Skubal is the best pitcher on the planet right now, so the market has decided this game is already over, which is how you end up with plus money on a run and a half. The thing is, Skubal games don't actually blow out - he suffocates offense so thoroughly that his starts tend to be tidy, low-scoring affairs, and our sim lands on a one-run Tigers win. Sproat is the soft spot, sure, but Detroit's lineup against a nibbler with a 10.7% walk rate isn't exactly a crooked-number machine either. The whole pitch is that a Skubal start is the last place you want to be laying a big number, and at -115 the run and a half covers in better than 60% of simulations. Take the points and let the ace do the pricing work for you.