MIN
53%
@
April 23, 2026
NYM
47%
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Joe Ryan
vs
NYM
Christian Scott
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Simulation only | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Elo ratings | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| Market (implied) | 51.1% | 48.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
4.7
NYM avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 4.9% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| NYM | 5.3% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Trevor Larnach
- Josh Bell
- Ryan Jeffers
- Kody Clemens
- Luke Keaschall
- Matt Wallner
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
NYM
- Bo Bichette
- Juan Soto
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Francisco Alvarez
- MJ Melendez
- Marcus Semien
- Mark Vientos
- Brett Baty
- Tommy Pham
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.08
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
70°F
Wind: 10 mph out
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1459
NYM: 1369
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -112 | -104 |
| Bovada | -113 | -107 |
| BetMGM | -118 | -102 |
| DraftKings | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |