PHI
35%
@
April 23, 2026
CHC
65%
ML
CHC ML (+106) — 65% win, +10.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
PHI
Cristopher Sanchez
vs
CHC
Edward Cabrera
Win Probability
| Source | PHI | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| Simulation only | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Elo ratings | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| Market (implied) | 53.1% | 46.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PHI avg runs
4.9
CHC avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PHI wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 5.1% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| CHC | 5.3% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- Alec Bohm
- Bryson Stott
- Justin Crawford
- Garrett Stubbs
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Carson Kelly
- Michael Busch
- Dansby Swanson
- Matt Shaw
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.95
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
81°F
Wind: 14 mph in
Elo Ratings
PHI: 1389
CHC: 1586
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PHI | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 |
| Bovada | -124 | +104 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -122 | +102 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |
Model Analysis
Getting plus money on the better team is the whole pitch here, and the board is leaning on Sanchez's surface numbers to justify it. The catch is that Sanchez is a lefty whose platoon split gets ugly fast against right-handed bats, and the Cubs happen to run a lineup of them deep enough to make Bregman and Suzuki problems four and five. Cabrera walks too many people to be anyone's ace, but his stuff plays, and the wind blowing in at 13 mph turns Schwarber and Harper from threats into warning-track outs. By Elo, Chicago is comfortably the stronger club, and getting +106 on the stronger club is how you find your way to a profitable October.