ATL
58%
@
April 23, 2026
WSN
42%
Pitching Matchup
ATL
JR Ritchie
vs
WSN
Cade Cavalli
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| Simulation only | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Elo ratings | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| Market (implied) | 55.0% | 45.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
5.2
WSN avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 4.1% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| WSN | 6.0% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Ozzie Albies
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Dominic Smith
- Mauricio Dubón
- Michael Harris II
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- CJ Abrams
- Daylen Lile
- Jacob Young
- Jorbit Vivas
- José Tena
- Keibert Ruiz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1626
WSN: 1506
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -132 | +112 |
| Bovada | -136 | +114 |
| BetMGM | -135 | +110 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 |