CWS
35%
@
April 23, 2026
ARI
65%
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Davis Martin
vs
ARI
Mike Soroka
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| Simulation only | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| Elo ratings | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| Market (implied) | 41.2% | 58.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.1
ARI avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 7.8% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| ARI | 6.2% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Andrew Benintendi
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Everson Pereira
- Sam Antonacci
- Edgar Quero
- Chase Meidroth
- Tristan Peters
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Adrian Del Castillo
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Jose Fernandez
- Nolan Arenado
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Alek Thomas
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1416
ARI: 1563
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Bovada | +131 | -157 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |