NYY
54%
@
April 23, 2026
BOS
46%
RL
BOS +1.5 (-125) — 62% win, +7.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Cam Schlittler
vs
BOS
Payton Tolle
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Simulation only | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Elo ratings | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| Market (implied) | 57.8% | 42.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
5.1
BOS avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 4.6% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% |
| BOS | 4.1% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Amed Rosario
- Aaron Judge
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Cody Bellinger
- Randal Grichuk
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- José Caballero
- J.C. Escarra
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Marcelo Mayer
- Caleb Durbin
- Carlos Narváez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.84
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
58°F
Wind: 8 mph out
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1584
BOS: 1480
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -154 | +130 |
| Bovada | -147 | +123 |
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -149 | +123 |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 |
Model Analysis
The market is pricing this like the Yankees are going to steamroll a kid making his fifth big league start, but the projected score has it landing inside a run either way. Cam Schlittler is not the bully the line implies, walking nearly 10% of the hitters he faces and getting barreled up by righties at a rate that plays directly into Anthony and Contreras. Tolle has command issues of his own, but Judge aside, this Yankee lineup is beatable, and a one-run game is all the runline needs. Our number has Boston covering at better than 62%, which makes -125 on the hook the kind of price you take and move on.