PIT
48%
@
April 23, 2026
TEX
52%
ML
PIT ML (+140) — 48% win, +7.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Bubba Chandler
vs
TEX
Jacob deGrom
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Simulation only | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Elo ratings | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Market (implied) | 40.4% | 59.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
5.1
TEX avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = TEX wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 4.9% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| TEX | 4.7% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Joey Bart
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Jung
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
- Josh Smith
- Ezequiel Duran
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1510
TEX: 1506
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +140 | -166 |
| Bovada | +134 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
The market is still paying deGrom like it's 2018, and Pittsburgh is the kind of lefty-heavy lineup that actually gives him trouble. His splits against left-handed bats show more barrels and harder contact than the shiny overall line suggests, which is exactly where Lowe, Cruz, and Reynolds do their damage. Chandler has quietly matched deGrom's contact-suppression profile in his early work, so this is closer to a coin flip than the board wants to admit. Two essentially even teams on paper, one priced at +140, is the whole argument.