CLE
47%
@
April 24, 2026
TOR
53%
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Gavin Williams
vs
TOR
Max Scherzer
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| Simulation only | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Elo ratings | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| Market (implied) | 53.8% | 46.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
4.5
TOR avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 5.8% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| TOR | 5.2% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- George Valera
- Daniel Schneemann
- Angel Martínez
- Bo Naylor
- Brayan Rocchio
TOR
- Nathan Lukes
- Ernie Clement
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Eloy Jiménez
- Daulton Varsho
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Andrés Giménez
- Tyler Heineman
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1511
TOR: 1501
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -126 | +108 |
| Bovada | -131 | +109 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -131 | +109 |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 |