Athletics
47%
@
April 24, 2026
TEX
53%
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Luis Severino
vs
TEX
Nathan Eovaldi
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Simulation only | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Elo ratings | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Market (implied) | 41.9% | 58.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
5.1
TEX avg runs
4.9
Avg total
10.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = TEX wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 4.2% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| TEX | 4.2% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Carlos Cortes
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Jacob Wilson
- Jeff McNeil
- Max Muncy
- Lawrence Butler
- Austin Wynns
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Corey Seager
- Wyatt Langford
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Jung
- Evan Carter
- Josh Smith
- Alejandro Osuna
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1519
TEX: 1524
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Bovada | +125 | -149 |
| BetMGM | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |