BOS
47%
@
April 24, 2026
BAL
53%
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Brayan Bello
vs
BAL
Brandon Young
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Simulation only | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Elo ratings | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Market (implied) | 47.3% | 52.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.4
BAL avg runs
4.9
Avg total
10.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 3.9% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| BAL | 3.9% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Wilyer Abreu
- Willson Contreras
- Jarren Duran
- Trevor Story
- Marcelo Mayer
- Caleb Durbin
- Carlos Narváez
BAL
- Gunnar Henderson
- Taylor Ward
- Adley Rutschman
- Pete Alonso
- Dylan Beavers
- Leody Taveras
- Jeremiah Jackson
- Colton Cowser
- Coby Mayo
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.15
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
67°F
Wind: 14 mph in
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1465
BAL: 1479
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Bovada | -101 | -119 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -122 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |