CHC
46%
@
April 24, 2026
LAD
54%
Pitching Matchup
CHC
Jameson Taillon
vs
LAD
Emmet Sheehan
Win Probability
| Source | CHC | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| Simulation only | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| Elo ratings | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Market (implied) | 40.3% | 59.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CHC avg runs
5.7
LAD avg runs
6.0
Avg total
11.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CHC wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 3.3% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| LAD | 2.3% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Miguel Amaya
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Dansby Swanson
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Freddie Freeman
- Will Smith
- Kyle Tucker
- Teoscar Hernández
- Max Muncy
- Andy Pages
- Hyeseong Kim
- Alex Freeland
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.26
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
74°F
Wind: 9 mph out
Elo Ratings
CHC: 1594
LAD: 1577
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CHC | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +140 | -166 |
| Bovada | +141 | -170 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 |