MIA
49%
@
April 24, 2026
SFG
51%
Pitching Matchup
MIA
Sandy Alcantara
vs
SFG
Adrian Houser
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Simulation only | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Elo ratings | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Market (implied) | 50.8% | 49.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIA avg runs
4.8
SFG avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 5.4% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| SFG | 6.0% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Kyle Stowers
- Otto Lopez
- Xavier Edwards
- Liam Hicks
- Agustín Ramírez
- Owen Caissie
- Graham Pauley
- Connor Norby
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Casey Schmitt
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Drew Gilbert
- Patrick Bailey
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
MIA: 1508
SFG: 1496
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -116 | -102 |
| Bovada | -109 | -111 |
| BetMGM | -118 | -102 |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |