MIN
43%
@
April 24, 2026
TBR
57%
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Taj Bradley
vs
TBR
Drew Rasmussen
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| Simulation only | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Elo ratings | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| Market (implied) | 47.0% | 53.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
4.6
TBR avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = TBR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 5.5% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| TBR | 5.9% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Trevor Larnach
- Josh Bell
- Ryan Jeffers
- Kody Clemens
- Luke Keaschall
- Matt Wallner
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
TBR
- Chandler Simpson
- Junior Caminero
- Jonathan Aranda
- Yandy Díaz
- Jake Fraley
- Cedric Mullins
- Richie Palacios
- Nick Fortes
- Taylor Walls
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.08
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1436
TBR: 1506
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +104 | -122 |
| Bovada | +103 | -123 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |