NYY
63%
@
April 24, 2026
HOU
37%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Will Warren
vs
HOU
Lance McCullers
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| Simulation only | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Elo ratings | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| Market (implied) | 56.7% | 43.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
5.4
HOU avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 3.6% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% |
| HOU | 5.6% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Ben Rice
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
- Ryan McMahon
HOU
- Carlos Correa
- Yordan Alvarez
- Jose Altuve
- Christian Walker
- Isaac Paredes
- Cam Smith
- Daniel Johnson
- Yainer Diaz
- Dustin Harris
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1599
HOU: 1409
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -142 | +120 |
| Bovada | -147 | +123 |
| BetMGM | -145 | +120 |
| DraftKings | -149 | +123 |
| Caesars | -145 | +122 |