PHI
31%
@
April 24, 2026
ATL
69%
ML
ATL ML (-142) — 69% win, +10.1% edge
Pitching Matchup
PHI
Andrew Painter
vs
ATL
Grant Holmes
Win Probability
| Source | PHI | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| Simulation only | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| Elo ratings | 16.3% | 83.7% |
| Market (implied) | 42.6% | 57.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PHI avg runs
5.0
ATL avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PHI wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 4.7% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| ATL | 4.5% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- Bryson Stott
- Alec Bohm
- Justin Crawford
- Rafael Marchán
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Ozzie Albies
- Michael Harris II
- Dominic Smith
- Mauricio Dubón
- Mike Yastrzemski
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
80°F
Wind: 7 mph in
Elo Ratings
PHI: 1380
ATL: 1640
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PHI | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Bovada | +124 | -148 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Model Analysis
ATL is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Grant Holmes toes the rubber against Andrew Painter. ATL holds a commanding 260-point Elo edge.