SEA
47%
@
April 24, 2026
STL
53%
ML
STL ML (+136) — 53% win, +8.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
SEA
George Kirby
vs
STL
Andre Pallante
Win Probability
| Source | SEA | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.9% | 53.0% |
| Simulation only | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| Elo ratings | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| Market (implied) | 58.9% | 41.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SEA avg runs
5.1
STL avg runs
4.2
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SEA wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 4.9% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% |
| STL | 7.0% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SEA
- J.P. Crawford
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
- Leo Rivas
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Masyn Winn
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.89
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
72°F
Wind: 2 mph out
Elo Ratings
SEA: 1498
STL: 1550
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SEA | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -162 | +136 |
| Bovada | -155 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +135 |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 |
Model Analysis
The market has STL as a +136 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Andre Pallante keeps STL competitive on the mound against George Kirby.