CHC
47%
@
May 13, 2026
ATL
53%
ML
ATL ML (+122) — 53% win, +6.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
CHC
Shota Imanaga
vs
ATL
JR Ritchie
Win Probability
| Source | CHC | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Simulation only | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| Elo ratings | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Market (implied) | 56.0% | 44.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CHC avg runs
5.2
ATL avg runs
4.3
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CHC wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 4.3% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| ATL | 6.3% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Michael Busch
- Carson Kelly
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Dansby Swanson
ATL
- Mauricio Dubón
- Drake Baldwin
- Ozzie Albies
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Michael Harris II
- Jorge Mateo
- Ha-Seong Kim
- Sandy León
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
78°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CHC: 1603
ATL: 1654
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CHC | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -144 | +122 |
| Bovada | -140 | +117 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +118 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 |
Model Analysis
Imanaga has spent the year getting tattooed by right-handed bats while quietly dominating lefties, and Atlanta happens to run out a lineup full of the exact profile that gives him problems. Olson and Baldwin are the headliners, both barreling balls at rates that turn a fly-ball lefty in a fair park into a live arm only on paper, and Imanaga's barrel rate against righties is north of 13%. The Cubs are catchable here, the price says otherwise, and getting plus money on the better team by Elo is the entire pitch. +122 on a coin flip you're winning more often than not is how the math works on you over time.