LAA
39%
@
May 13, 2026
CLE
61%
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Reid Detmers
vs
CLE
Parker Messick
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| Simulation only | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Elo ratings | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| Market (implied) | 41.1% | 58.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
4.2
CLE avg runs
4.1
Avg total
8.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 6.7% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| CLE | 7.5% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Vaughn Grissom
- Jorge Soler
- Jo Adell
- Nolan Schanuel
- Oswald Peraza
- Sebastián Rivero
- Bryce Teodosio
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Angel Martínez
- José Ramírez
- Rhys Hoskins
- Chase DeLauter
- David Fry
- Travis Bazzana
- Austin Hedges
- Brayan Rocchio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.89
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
49°F
Wind: 14 mph cross
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1376
CLE: 1497
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Bovada | +135 | -161 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |