NYY
58%
@
May 13, 2026
BAL
42%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Max Fried
vs
BAL
Kyle Bradish
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Simulation only | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Elo ratings | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| Market (implied) | 61.9% | 38.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
5.5
BAL avg runs
4.7
Avg total
10.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 3.6% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| BAL | 4.7% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Ben Rice
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Ryan McMahon
- Spencer Jones
- Anthony Volpe
- Austin Wells
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Adley Rutschman
- Pete Alonso
- Tyler O'Neill
- Coby Mayo
- Leody Taveras
- Weston Wilson
- Blaze Alexander
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.14
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
65°F
Wind: 6 mph out
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1561
BAL: 1445
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -178 | +150 |
| Bovada | -190 | +156 |
| BetMGM | -185 | +150 |
| DraftKings | -173 | +142 |