PHI
52%
@
May 13, 2026
BOS
48%
Pitching Matchup
PHI
Andrew Painter
vs
BOS
Sonny Gray
Win Probability
| Source | PHI | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Simulation only | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| Elo ratings | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Market (implied) | 45.5% | 54.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PHI avg runs
5.3
BOS avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PHI wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 4.1% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| BOS | 4.9% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- J.T. Realmuto
- Bryson Stott
- Alec Bohm
- Justin Crawford
BOS
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Masataka Yoshida
- Trevor Story
- Mickey Gasper
- Marcelo Mayer
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Caleb Durbin
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.85
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
64°F
Wind: 13 mph cross
Elo Ratings
PHI: 1536
BOS: 1497
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PHI | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +112 | -132 |
| Bovada | +110 | -132 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |