Pitching Matchup
Win Probability
| Source | STL | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Simulation only | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Elo ratings | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| Market (implied) | 42.6% | 57.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 6.5% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Athletics | 4.9% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Ivรกn Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Masyn Winn
- Nathan Church
- Thomas Saggese
- Victor Scott II
Athletics
- Jacob Wilson
- Shea Langeliers
- Nick Kurtz
- Colby Thomas
- Zack Gelof
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Austin Wynns
- Darell Hernaiz
- Jeff McNeil
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Elo Ratings
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +128 | -152 |
| Bovada | +124 | -148 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Model Analysis
Ginn's surface numbers hide a split so lopsided it should be moving the line, and the Cardinals happen to roll out the exact lineup built to exploit it. Lefties have hammered him to the tune of a .446 wOBA, and St. Louis can stack Burleson, Donovan, and Gorman against him while Herrera does his usual damage from the right side. Liberatore isn't Cy Young, but he's facing an Oakland lineup that thins out quickly after Kurtz, and the Cardinals are simply the better team here by a wide margin. Getting plus money on the favorite when the pitching matchup tilts your way is how the board accidentally pays you. +128 is a gift the market hands out when it stares too long at ERA and forgets to read the platoon column.