WSN
50%
@
May 13, 2026
CIN
50%
ML
WSN ML (+140) — 50% win, +8.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Jake Irvin
vs
CIN
Nick Lodolo
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Simulation only | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Elo ratings | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Market (implied) | 40.5% | 59.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
5.1
CIN avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 4.2% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% |
| CIN | 4.4% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Curtis Mead
- Brady House
- CJ Abrams
- Jacob Young
- Daylen Lile
- Joey Wiemer
- Nasim Nuñez
- Keibert Ruiz
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- JJ Bleday
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Matt McLain
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.29
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
65°F
Wind: 15 mph cross
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1494
CIN: 1450
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +134 | -158 |
| Bovada | +139 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -165 |
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 |
Model Analysis
Lodolo's surface numbers paint him as a problem, but the splits tell a different story: he is a left-hander who left-handed hitters handle just fine, and Washington happens to run a lineup full of them. James Wood gets the kind of platoon look that has produced a .341 xwOBA against southpaws, and the rest of the order (Abrams, the lefty bats behind Wood) keeps the matchup tilted the wrong way for Cincinnati. Irvin is no prize, but a park with a 1.29 HR factor and crosswinds cuts both ways, and the sim has this as a coin flip the market is pricing as a clear dog. +140 on a team that profiles dead-even is the entire argument.