ARI
45%
@
May 13, 2026
TEX
55%
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Ryne Nelson
vs
TEX
Kumar Rocker
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Simulation only | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Elo ratings | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| Market (implied) | 47.2% | 52.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
4.9
TEX avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = TEX wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 5.1% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| TEX | 5.9% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Adrian Del Castillo
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Nolan Arenado
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Gabriel Moreno
- Ryan Waldschmidt
TEX
- Joc Pederson
- Brandon Nimmo
- Corey Seager
- Josh Jung
- Evan Carter
- Ezequiel Duran
- Alejandro Osuna
- Jake Burger
- Danny Jansen
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1475
TEX: 1524
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +104 | -122 |
| Bovada | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -122 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |