DET
50%
@
May 13, 2026
NYM
50%
Pitching Matchup
DET
Framber Valdez
vs
NYM
Christian Scott
Win Probability
| Source | DET | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Simulation only | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| Elo ratings | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Market (implied) | 49.4% | 50.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.6
NYM avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 5.6% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| NYM | 5.4% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
DET
- Kevin McGonigle
- Matt Vierling
- Colt Keith
- Riley Greene
- Dillon Dingler
- Wenceel Pérez
- Gage Workman
- Spencer Torkelson
- Zach McKinstry
NYM
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Austin Slater
- Mark Vientos
- Marcus Semien
- Tyrone Taylor
- A.J. Ewing
- Luis Torrens
- Vidal Bruján
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
62°F
Wind: 19 mph in
Elo Ratings
DET: 1468
NYM: 1416
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -106 | -110 |
| Bovada | -106 | -114 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -110 | -110 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |