KCR
45%
@
May 13, 2026
CWS
55%
Pitching Matchup
KCR
Seth Lugo
vs
CWS
Noah Schultz
Win Probability
| Source | KCR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Simulation only | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Elo ratings | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| Market (implied) | 51.4% | 48.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
KCR avg runs
4.5
CWS avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = KCR wins, Positive = CWS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 6.3% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| CWS | 6.8% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Lane Thomas
- Salvador Perez
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Starling Marte
- Isaac Collins
- Nick Loftin
- Elias Díaz
CWS
- Sam Antonacci
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Chase Meidroth
- Andrew Benintendi
- Jarred Kelenic
- Tristan Peters
- Drew Romo
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.94
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
51°F
Wind: 6 mph out
Elo Ratings
KCR: 1475
CWS: 1502
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | KCR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -112 | -104 |
| Bovada | -114 | -106 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |