Pitching Matchup
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Simulation only | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Elo ratings | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| Market (implied) | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 4.6% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| MIN | 5.1% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Xavier Edwards
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Kyle Stowers
- Connor Norby
- Jakob Marsee
- Owen Caissie
- Javier Sanoja
- Joe Mack
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Trevor Larnach
- Ryan Jeffers
- Josh Bell
- Kody Clemens
- Luke Keaschall
- Matt Wallner
- Brooks Lee
- Royce Lewis
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Weather
Elo Ratings
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 |
| Bovada | -124 | +104 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +104 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |
Model Analysis
Max Meyer's surface line looks fine until you notice he's getting barreled and squared up at rates that usually belong to a swingman, and Minnesota is built specifically to punish that profile. The top of this order is loaded with bats that hit the ball hard in the air, and Buxton in particular has been a different animal against right-handers all year. Meyer is giving up a 47.6% hard-hit rate to everyone he faces, which is the kind of contact quality that catches up to you in a park playing slightly to the hitters with the wind doing nothing to save you. Woods Richardson isn't a star, but he's the steadier arm in a game the market has priced as a coin flip. At +106 on the better team, you're getting paid to take the side the math already likes.