SEA
56%
@
May 13, 2026
HOU
44%
Pitching Matchup
SEA
Bryce Miller
vs
HOU
Lance McCullers
Win Probability
| Source | SEA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| Simulation only | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Elo ratings | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| Market (implied) | 53.4% | 46.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SEA avg runs
4.9
HOU avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SEA wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 5.1% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| HOU | 5.4% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Cal Raleigh
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- J.P. Crawford
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Christian Walker
- Zach Cole
- Cam Smith
- Braden Shewmake
- Brice Matthews
- César Salazar
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
SEA: 1518
HOU: 1399
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SEA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 |
| Bovada | -128 | +107 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +104 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |