SFG
43%
@
May 13, 2026
LAD
57%
RL
SFG +1.5 (+100) — 60% win, +10.0% edge
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Robbie Ray
vs
LAD
Shohei Ohtani
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Simulation only | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Elo ratings | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Market (implied) | 31.6% | 68.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
5.5
LAD avg runs
5.7
Avg total
11.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 3.7% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| LAD | 3.0% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Luis Arraez
- Heliot Ramos
- Rafael Devers
- Bryce Eldridge
- Willy Adames
- Matt Chapman
- Harrison Bader
- Jesus Rodriguez
LAD
- Mookie Betts
- Freddie Freeman
- Will Smith
- Kyle Tucker
- Andy Pages
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Santiago Espinal
- Miguel Rojas
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.26
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
70°F
Wind: 10 mph cross
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1481
LAD: 1517
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +205 | -250 |
| Bovada | +200 | -245 |
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 |
| DraftKings | +199 | -246 |
| Caesars | +205 | -250 |
Model Analysis
Getting a full run and even money against Ohtani feels wrong until you remember the Giants only need to lose by one, and Robbie Ray is perfectly capable of keeping a game close even when he's walking the ballpark. San Francisco's lefty-heavy top of the order is the worst possible draw for Ohtani, who has been a different pitcher against righties, and Devers in particular has been demolishing right-handed arms with a .391 xwOBA that plays in any park. Ray's command will wobble, but the sim sees this landing inside a run either way, which is all a plus-money 1.5 needs. The market is pricing the Dodger logo, not the matchup underneath it.