TBR
61%
@
May 13, 2026
TOR
39%
ML
TBR ML (+142) — 61% win, +10.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Griffin Jax
vs
TOR
Dylan Cease
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| Simulation only | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Elo ratings | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| Market (implied) | 40.2% | 59.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.8
TOR avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 5.6% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| TOR | 5.3% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Chandler Simpson
- Junior Caminero
- Jonathan Aranda
- Yandy Díaz
- Jake Fraley
- Richie Palacios
- Cedric Mullins
- Hunter Feduccia
- Taylor Walls
TOR
- George Springer
- Yohendrick Piñango
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Daulton Varsho
- Jesús Sánchez
- Ernie Clement
- Andrés Giménez
- Brandon Valenzuela
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1656
TOR: 1447
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +142 | -168 |
| Bovada | +134 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
Toronto is the home favorite here, which is funny because Tampa is the better team by a wide margin and the matchup on the mound tilts the same way. Cease still misses bats but the walks have crept up and the contact against him keeps getting louder, which is the worst possible profile to bring into a lineup built around Aranda and Diaz. Jax has quietly been one of the nastier arms in the league this year, a 35% strikeout rate with the kind of command Cease wishes he still had. The market is paying for the logo on the front of the jersey, and at +142 you get the actual favorite at a discount.