CWS
50%
@
June 29, 2026
BAL
50%
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Sean Burke
vs
BAL
Shane Baz
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Simulation only | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Elo ratings | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Market (implied) | 44.2% | 55.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
5.2
BAL avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 4.5% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| BAL | 4.2% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Sam Antonacci
- Miguel Vargas
- Kyle Teel
- Andrew Benintendi
- Colson Montgomery
- Chase Meidroth
- Braden Montgomery
- Tristan Peters
- Jacob Gonzalez
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Adley Rutschman
- Pete Alonso
- Samuel Basallo
- Dylan Beavers
- Coby Mayo
- Colton Cowser
- Jackson Holliday
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.2
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
88°F
Wind: 6 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1519
BAL: 1475
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +114 | -134 |
| Bovada | +120 | -143 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +114 | -137 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |