NYM
47%
@
June 29, 2026
TOR
53%
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Sean Manaea
vs
TOR
Trey Yesavage
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Simulation only | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Elo ratings | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Market (implied) | 46.1% | 53.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
5.1
TOR avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 4.5% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| TOR | 5.2% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Carson Benge
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Francisco Lindor
- Jared Young
- Francisco Alvarez
- A.J. Ewing
- Ronny Mauricio
- Brett Baty
TOR
- George Springer
- Ernie Clement
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Alejandro Kirk
- Daulton Varsho
- Myles Straw
- Nathan Lukes
- Luis Urías
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1418
TOR: 1441
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Bovada | +107 | -128 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +105 | -126 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |