SDP
42%
@
June 29, 2026
CHC
58%
Pitching Matchup
SDP
Griffin Canning
vs
CHC
Shota Imanaga
Win Probability
| Source | SDP | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Simulation only | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| Elo ratings | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Market (implied) | 42.4% | 57.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SDP avg runs
4.6
CHC avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SDP wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDP | 6.0% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| CHC | 5.4% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SDP
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Samad Taylor
- Manny Machado
- Xander Bogaerts
- Jackson Merrill
- Miguel Andujar
- Ty France
- Freddy Fermin
- Jase Bowen
CHC
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Alex Bregman
- Michael Busch
- Seiya Suzuki
- Ian Happ
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Conforto
- Carson Kelly
- Dansby Swanson
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.97
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
92°F
Wind: 13 mph in
Elo Ratings
SDP: 1508
CHC: 1558
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SDP | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +130 | -154 |
| Bovada | +124 | -148 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |