Pitching Matchup
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Simulation only | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Elo ratings | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Market (implied) | 42.7% | 57.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 6.3% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| CLE | 6.8% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Corey Seager
- Josh Jung
- Jake Burger
- Justin Foscue
- Ezequiel Duran
- Alejandro Osuna
- Kyle Higashioka
- Evan Carter
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Travis Bazzana
- Chase DeLauter
- Kyle Manzardo
- Kahlil Watson
- Brayan Rocchio
- Cooper Ingle
- Daniel Schneemann
- Patrick Bailey
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Weather
Elo Ratings
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +126 | -148 |
| Bovada | +127 | -152 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +124 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Model Analysis
Parker Messick is a rookie lefty with a tidy line through 165 batters faced, which is another way of saying nobody has seen him enough times to know what happens when the league files its second scouting report. Texas is the wrong lineup to learn on, because Seager has been demolishing right-handed pitching all year and Messick, despite the handedness flip, leaks more contact to righties than the surface stats suggest. Tyler Alexander is nothing special, but Cleveland's lineup outside of Kwan is a collection of names you had to look up, and the sim sees a one-run game the market has turned into a coin flip with a thumb on the scale. Getting +127 on the better Elo team in a tossup is the entire argument.