CIN
39%
@
June 29, 2026
MIL
61%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Nick Lodolo
vs
MIL
Robert Gasser
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| Simulation only | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Elo ratings | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| Market (implied) | 41.9% | 58.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.4
MIL avg runs
4.1
Avg total
8.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = MIL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 6.2% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| MIL | 6.8% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- Dane Myers
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Spencer Steer
- Eugenio Suárez
- JJ Bleday
- Noelvi Marte
- Tyler Stephenson
- Matt McLain
MIL
- Jackson Chourio
- Brice Turang
- William Contreras
- Andrew Vaughn
- Gary Sánchez
- Blake Perkins
- Sal Frelick
- Cooper Pratt
- Joey Ortiz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.13
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1454
MIL: 1584
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +128 | -152 |
| Bovada | +130 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |