LAD
64%
@
June 29, 2026
Athletics
36%
ML
LAD ML (-113) — 64% win, +11.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAD
Eric Lauer
vs
Athletics
Gage Jump
Win Probability
| Source | LAD | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| Simulation only | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Elo ratings | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| Market (implied) | 51.2% | 48.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAD avg runs
5.8
Athletics avg runs
4.7
Avg total
10.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAD wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 3.7% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% |
| Athletics | 5.6% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Andy Pages
- Freddie Freeman
- Mookie Betts
- Max Muncy
- Tommy Edman
- Kyle Tucker
- Dalton Rushing
- Alex Freeland
Athletics
- Henry Bolte
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Jonah Heim
- Joey Meneses
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
- Alika Williams
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
LAD: 1643
Athletics: 1436
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAD | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -116 | -102 |
| Bovada | -113 | -107 |
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -114 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |
Model Analysis
The market is pricing this like a coin flip between two ballclubs, and one of these dugouts is in the middle of a pennant chase while the other is auditioning kids from Sacramento. The Dodgers are the better team by a wide, almost embarrassing margin, and Lauer is a perfectly fine bridge arm against a lineup that swings and misses for a living. Ohtani gets a left-hander he'll happily punish anyway, and the rest of the order doesn't need much help when Kurtz and Langeliers are the only real threats behind him. A 64% favorite at -113 is the kind of mispricing that only happens when the public sees the wrong uniform on the road.