MIN
42%
@
June 29, 2026
HOU
58%
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Zebby Matthews
vs
HOU
Peter Lambert
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| Simulation only | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Elo ratings | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| Market (implied) | 44.7% | 55.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
4.7
HOU avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 5.2% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| HOU | 6.2% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIN
- Trevor Larnach
- Byron Buxton
- Kody Clemens
- Royce Lewis
- Josh Bell
- Brooks Lee
- Victor Caratini
- Tristan Gray
- Luke Keaschall
HOU
- Jeremy Peña
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Christian Walker
- Jose Altuve
- Joey Loperfido
- Yainer Diaz
- Cam Smith
- Taylor Trammell
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1486
HOU: 1567
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -134 |
| Bovada | +113 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |