Pitching Matchup
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Simulation only | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| Elo ratings | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| Market (implied) | 49.9% | 50.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 4.8% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| PHI | 3.3% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Konnor Griffin
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Nick Gonzales
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Endy Rodríguez
- Esmerlyn Valdez
- Tyler Callihan
- Jake Mangum
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Brandon Marsh
- Alec Bohm
- Bryson Stott
- J.T. Realmuto
- Gabriel Rincones Jr.
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Weather
Elo Ratings
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -106 | -110 |
| Bovada | -113 | -107 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -110 | -109 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Model Analysis
The market is treating this like a coin flip because Pittsburgh is sending a young arm with shiny peripherals, but Ashcraft has faced under 300 hitters in the big leagues and the Phillies have the exact lineup built to expose him. He's walked nearly 12% of the lefties he's seen, which is bad news with Schwarber and Harper waiting in the middle of the order. Nola isn't peak Nola anymore, but he doesn't have to be against a Pirates lineup that's been one of the league's quietest, and the projected scoreline already accounts for him giving back a few. At -107, you're getting the better team at a near pick-em price in a park that rewards exactly the kind of damage Philly is built to do.