SFG
50%
@
June 29, 2026
ARI
50%
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Tyler Mahle
vs
ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Simulation only | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Elo ratings | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Market (implied) | 44.3% | 55.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
4.6
ARI avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 6.1% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| ARI | 5.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Matt Chapman
- Luis Arraez
- Casey Schmitt
- Rafael Devers
- Heliot Ramos
- Willy Adames
- Victor Bericoto
- Eric Haase
- Jonah Cox
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Corbin Carroll
- Gabriel Moreno
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Max Kepler
- Nolan Arenado
- Pavin Smith
- Tommy Troy
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1494
ARI: 1450
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +118 | -138 |
| Bovada | +114 | -136 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -144 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |