Pitching Matchup
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| Simulation only | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Elo ratings | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Market (implied) | 39.5% | 60.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 5.1% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% |
| BOS | 4.8% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Curtis Mead
- Andrés Chaparro
- CJ Abrams
- Dylan Crews
- Daylen Lile
- Jacob Young
- Nasim Nuñez
- Keibert Ruiz
BOS
- Masataka Yoshida
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Wilyer Abreu
- Willson Contreras
- Jarren Duran
- Caleb Durbin
- Anthony Seigler
- Carlos Narváez
- Tsung-Che Cheng
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Weather
Elo Ratings
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +142 | -168 |
| Bovada | +144 | -175 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +144 | -175 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |
Model Analysis
Boston is being priced like the obvious side in a game where their starter is good but not unhittable, and the Nationals happen to bring the exact lineup shape that gives Ranger Suarez the most trouble. Suarez has been a different pitcher against righties than lefties this year, and Washington runs a righty-heavy order led by James Wood, who's been punishing right-handed pitching to the tune of a .370 xwOBA. The Elo gap here is essentially noise, two teams separated by less than ten points, yet the market has carved out a real favorite. Plus money on a coin flip where the lineup matchup tilts your way is the entire argument, and +144 is a generous way to make it.