BAL
41%
@
August 15, 2026
TBR
59%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Kyle Bradish
vs
TBR
Ian Seymour
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| Simulation only | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Elo ratings | 34.1% | 66.0% |
| Market (implied) | 42.8% | 57.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.4
TBR avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = TBR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 6.7% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| TBR | 6.5% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Pete Alonso
- Christian Franklin
- Gunnar Henderson
- Tyler O'Neill
- Coby Mayo
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand
- Jackson Holliday
- Jeremiah Jackson
- Carlos Narváez
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Chandler Simpson
- Junior Caminero
- Liam Hicks
- Victor Mesa Jr.
- Cedric Mullins
- Richie Palacios
- Taylor Walls
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.08
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1528
TBR: 1619
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +126 | -138 |
| Bovada | +127 | -152 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +131 | -141 |
| Caesars | +131 | -141 |